8/27/2009

THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH THIS 'RECOVERY'

DRUDGE REPORT HAS A LINK TO THIS ARTICLE FROM THE UK TELEGRAPH:

There is something wrong with the entire recovery tale, which ignores the fact that excess plant is still at the highest level since the Great Depression (capacity use is 70pc in Europe, 68pc in the US, 65pc in Japan, and as low as 50pc in some countries, according to the World Bank’s Justin Lin). Companies will have to cut jobs and investment.

Soaring “confidence” indicators have decoupled from reality. The world economy is still prostrate. GDP has shrunk 4pc, 6pc, 8pc, even 12pc or more in a large group of countries. There it more or less sits, like a deflated soufflĂ©.

THIS IS SCARY STUFF...BUT EVEN MORE INTERESTING...AND TERRIFYING IS THIS:

Japan is the world’s second biggest economy. It lives on exports. It is also a key part of the supply chain for the Chinese economy. How can this hard data be reconciled with the extreme V-shaped recovery already priced in by the markets?

Is this just a glut of ships or is this telling us what the Shanghai market is also telling us, that credit tightening by the Chinese government is pulling the rug from underneath the latest commodity bubble?


THERE...THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT'S INVOLVEMENT IN ALL OF THIS...

PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WARNING ABOUT BORROWING AT THE RATE WE HAVE AND THE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WE HAVE FROM NOT ONLY ONE OF OUR WORLD COMPETETITORS...CHINA IS REALLY NO FRIEND TO THE UNITED STATES...

SURE, THEY COME HERE AND BUY UP INVESTMENTS...BUT, REALLY, IS THAT A GOOD THING?

I AM NOT AFRAID TO ADMIT...I AM WORRIED...AND IF YOU AREN'T...YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION...

DR